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DEMAND FORECASTING

Know how the month will close, before it ends

Sentinel AI projects your demand from your own booking curve (pace and pickup), adds your region events and shows you where every number comes from. Your history, not a crystal ball.

What pace and pickup forecasting is

Pace measures how fast a future date is filling compared with how that same date filled in your history, at the same lead time. Pickup is the net change in bookings (new minus cancellations) for a date over recent days. Together they tell you whether a night is running ahead, in line, or behind, today.

Sentinel AI takes what you already have booked (OTB) and divides it by the fraction of demand that was historically already booked at this same lead time. The result is an honest projection of month-end: never below what is booked or above your capacity, and keeping your ADR.

How it helps you sell every night better

Every demand signal, explained and actionable, inside R2 OS.

YOUR REAL CURVE

Forecasts built on your booking curve

Instead of a flat seasonal average, Sentinel learns the shape of how YOUR dates fill and compares today against that pattern. A night falling behind its normal curve is flagged early, while it is still cheap to react.

  • Compares against your own history, not generic averages
  • Spots cold or hot dates before an average would
PICKUP

Pickup, day by day

See the net rooms gained or lost for any future date over the last day, week or two weeks. Instead of one occupancy number, you watch momentum: which dates accelerate, which stall, and which need a price move today.

  • New minus cancellations, by time window
  • Prioritizes the dates that are really moving
PACE

Pace against the same lead time

Every date is measured against the same lead-time point in your history, so 60% occupied finally means something. You instantly know whether you are ahead of, in line with, or behind a date you have already lived through.

  • Context, not numbers in a vacuum
  • Separates the early window from the last-minute one
EVENTS

Events and demand calendar

A forward calendar surfaces the conferences, concerts, holidays and day-of-week patterns that move demand before they reach your books. You raise rates for the festival weekend three months out, not after you notice you are full.

  • Your region events, not a generic market
  • Anticipates demand peaks and dips
TRANSPARENCY

A forecast you can audit

Every projection exposes its method: the pace fraction, the sample size and the events behind it. It is not a black box that spits out a number; your team sees why the forecast says what it says, defends it to ownership and trusts it.

  • Every number shows its formula and its sample
  • If there is not enough history, it says so; it does not invent
ACTION

Feeds your pricing decisions

The forecast is not a report you file away: it feeds the Sentinel AI rules engine directly to suggest which rates to move and when, while rooms are still sellable and the ADR impact is highest.

  • Connects the forecast to your pricing strategy
  • Acts while the room can still be sold
THE SENTINEL DIFFERENCE

Other systems hand you a number and ask you to trust it. Sentinel AI shows you where it comes from, with your own data, so you decide.

Pace and pickup vs. the traditional approach

Why your own curve beats an average or a spreadsheet.

SENTINEL AISeasonal averageSpreadsheet
Updates with every booking
Looks at each date, not an average month
Reacts to events and demand shocks
Distinguishes by lead time
Every number is auditable
No manual work or versions

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between pickup and pace?
Pickup is the net change in bookings for a date over a recent window (your momentum now). Pace compares how fast that date fills against a benchmark, like the same lead time in your history, to tell whether you are ahead or behind.
Why not just use last year average?
An average assumes this year repeats last year. Pace watches how THIS specific date is actually building and adjusts on its own, so it catches a strong or soft date long before a seasonal average would.
What does on-the-books (OTB) mean?
It is the reservations you already hold for a future date: your confirmed demand so far. It is the real foundation the forecast is built on.
Does it account for events like concerts or conferences?
Yes. A demand calendar overlays the events, holidays and day-of-week patterns of your region to anticipate peaks and dips before they reach your bookings.
Can I trust the forecast or is it a black box?
Every projection traces back to your real reservations and the events behind it, with the method in plain view. You can audit it, challenge it and explain it to ownership.
Do I need a lot of history for it to work?
It works from the booking history your hotel already generates; the more complete it is, the sharper the curves and pace comparisons become. If there is not enough, it tells you instead of inventing.

PUT YOUR REVENUE TO WORK

Book a demo and see how Sentinel AI suggests the price of every night from your own data.